Trump and security in the Middle East
Money talks, but this is beyond business as usual.
By Michael Stephens, Research Fellow at Global Nation
Source: Walt Disney Television.
Donald Trump will take over the Whitehouse on January 20, 2025 some fifteen months after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 leaving a Middle East region that looks markedly different from when Trump last left office in 2021. Israel’s ferocious response has successfully weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, but the death of tens of thousands of civilians and destruction of over half of Gaza, that amounts to ‘plausible genocide’ according to the International Criminal Court, has upended regional political alignments. The core pillar of Trump’s Middle East policy, the Abraham Accords, still stands, but Israel’s regional relationships are now severely strained, and a return to the status quo ante bellum seems impossible.
The instability and bloodshed that have marked the region in the past year will undoubtedly concern Trump, who dislikes being drawn into adventures overseas. He is cautious about embroiling the United States in conflicts abroad, especially in the Middle East which he once termed as being comprised of “blood and sand”. Trump has also made clear on several occasions that he wants to see conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza over before he takes office. He has not articulated a plan but it is clear his administration wants to prioritise cooling down regional tensions at the beginning of his term.
We should expect a less chaotic approach this time round
Trump’s incoming team will be integral to delivering swift success and he has clearly given considerable thought to how his regional team should be staffed. In 2016, his election victory was largely unexpected, leading to an unstable transition period marred by rushed appointments and lax vetting procedures. In the midst of the chaos, many traditional non-Trump Republicans were brought in to fill the gaps, creating a bifurcated administration of MAGA loyalists and traditionalist GOP figures, often sitting uncomfortably together. Trump’s tendency to use his Twitter account to talk about the region didn’t help by causing confusion inside his administration, and baffling foreign allies alike.
2024 is quite different, with an administration that looks and feels distinctly more MAGA and loyal to the President-elect. Trump has made it absolutely clear he intends to push his senior appointments through during Recess, thereby ensuring that there is minimal legislative opposition, and we should expect to see the majority of Trump appointees in office come Inauguration Day.
None of this detracts from the chaos and uncertainty inherent to a Trump-led policy process. But it does mean that there are likely to be fewer dissenting voices this time around.
A highly transactional modus operandi will likely become the norm
As with appointments elsewhere in the new Administration, the picks for the Middle East are unusual, and indicate that Trump will not support an approach driven by the Washington beltway community. Steven Witkoff, Real Estate mogul and long-time golf buddy of President Trump will assume the role of Middle East Special Envoy, while former Governor of Arkansas and one-time Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee has been selected to serve as Ambassador to Israel. Meanwhile, Senator Marco Rubio appears likely to be appointed as Secretary of State. Huckabee’s hardline pro-Israel stance on the Middle East conflict is well known, while Rubio is a known anti-Iran and anti-China hawk. We should expect to see Israel given a fair amount of latitude, which will no doubt please Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The matter is, however, complicated by the recent actions of powerful regional US allies hoping to see a revival of a US backed Peace Process leading to the creation of a Palestinian State. Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have dramatically toughened their stances of late, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman calling Israeli actions in Gaza “genocide” and Turkish President Erdogan fully severing all diplomatic relations with Israel. The timing of these decisions was not accidental, announced just a week after Trump’s victory. These two stalwart partners of the US have made their play, and are trying to fashion both regional leverage and box in the incoming Trump team to do something to alleviate the desperate plight of the Palestinians.
Two major regional allies converging on Washington to deal with a third ally is a real challenge for Trump, who will have to deal with competing regional agendas that are destined to clash. Although Trump isn’t a great proponent of Human Rights, he does care about humanitarian issues, and there is every chance that he might be swayed to act to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians following sustained diplomatic pressure from Ankara and Riyadh.
Big deals come with big problems
Trump’s approach to the Middle East has always been highly transactional. Complex strategy disinterests him, and as long as the Middle East is off the news, and the US is making money through business deals or weapons sales with the Gulf nations he is generally happy. But the great deal maker is going to have to come up with something quite spectacular to ensure all major US allies remain happy.
It is likely that Trump will encourage a series of bilateral deals that look simplistic on the surface, and which favour Israel, but that also ensure the conflicts cool down significantly, thereby placating Turkey and Saudi Arabia. As the violent conflict wanes, vital regional political questions will need to be answered, such as the role of the Palestinian Authority, regional alignment on deterring Iran, and the future shape of Yemen and Lebanon’s broken politics. In short, while Trump may want some quick political wins in the region, the reality is that he will have to demonstrate the sort of sustained leadership which does not play to his strengths.
What’s more, the strong anti-China sentiments inside the incoming administration will add an additional layer of complexity. Blunting China’s increasing presence in the Middle East as it attempts to position itself as a regional peacemaker (as was seen in mediation role between Saudi Arabia and Iran), means Trump will need to produce some positive tangible results in the region, both politically, and economically. Failure to do so, will undermine US power in the region and further incentivise regional states to seek alternative power structures that rival Washington.
While Trump faces a far more volatile situation in the region that when he was in last in office, many regional powers cannot wait to see the back of Biden and his administration. They appear ready to see whether Trump 2.0 can produce something that favours their interests – an opportunity that at this point could go in a number of directions. If he can muster sufficient good will, determination and focus, there may be increased willingness among regional states to come to arrangements that improve the region’s security and bring it back from the cusp of all-out war.
Michael Stephens is a Research Fellow at Global Nation. He specialises in Foreign Affairs and International Development, with a focus on the Middle East. He is also a Senior Fellow at RAND Europe and RUSI, focusing on security studies in the Middle East. Michael has previously served as Senior Research Analyst at the Foreign Office with a focus on Lebanon and Syria.