Welcome to 2025: can we thrive with less America?
Before we dive into this substack, we have a short message for our partners and friends. Global Nation was founded two and a half years ago by Hassan Damluji and Jonathan Glennie. Now, as our work expands, we are dividing into two organizations: Global Nation, registered in the UK, led by Hassan, and the Global Cooperation Institute, registered in Colombia, led by Jonathan. Each organization will take advantage of its unique capabilities, and we will continue to collaborate closely.
Now, as we come to the end of the year, we want to tell you why we are entering 2025 trying to balance concern for a world on the brink, with optimism at the progress we can make.
Photo: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.
Back in February, we described what Trump 2.0 would mean for international cooperation. Well, here we are. It’s happening. Buckle up.
The new US administration will of course be a change, but as we argued at the start of the year, it is better seen as a speeding up of a long-term process through which American hegemony is giving way to a multipolar world. That may feel scary for countries that have felt protected by the US-led order. But it is not a new direction, just a dizzying acceleration.
If managed badly, there is no doubt that the world could be taking a step closer to calamity. We will spare you all the reasons that 2025 is fraught with danger (there are plenty of “top risks” analyses you can peruse). But there may also be a narrow path towards building a better system in the wake of a receding America. We see at least 5 trends that could gather pace in the coming year:
A new multilateralism: With the U.S. stepping back from its traditional leadership role, 2025 could mark the real beginning of 21st century multilateralism—a shift from a U.S.-led world to one of shared leadership, fostering innovative multilateral frameworks independent of Washington’s dominance.
Empowering the Global South: Without as much active U.S. diplomacy overshadowing discussions, countries in the Global South can unify and lead, building institutions and alliances that prioritise their needs rather than responding to Washington’s agenda.
Europe and Canada stepping up: The lack of U.S. leadership removes the excuse for other high-income countries to delay meaningful action on climate, inequality, and Human Rights. Nations like Canada and EU members now face greater pressure to fill the leadership void.
More honest engagement: Given the straightforward clarity that the U.S. will not be part of the solution on issues like climate or conflict, the international community can bypass unproductive negotiations and pursue more transformative, localized, or alternative strategies.
Leveraging great power competition: The rivalry between the U.S. and China offers a chance for smaller nations and multilateral institutions to leverage this competition, securing commitments on issues like development, climate financing, and trade.
2025 will be an important year for multilateralism. It’s a pivotal moment to rethink how we tackle systemic crises and build coalitions that don’t depend on a singular global hegemon, capitalizing on the structural shifts happening globally.
Of course, as American moral and practical authority declines, China is being looked to as a power that might fill some of the gaps. This presents both opportunities and challenges for internationalists. The goal should be to engage China pragmatically, and respectfully, while acknowledging that, just like the rising powers of previous eras, it is seeking to remake the rules in a way that serves itself. China has vast resources of finance, technology and human capital that can be leveraged to advance shared goals like climate action and global development. But stepping into that role requires China to operate with far greater transparency and accountability on its engagement with other countries, for example on debt sustainability and human rights (see Jonathan’s recent speech to the Fifth China and International Development Forum). Despite excellent work by AidData, it is still far from clear exactly what China is doing, how and why.
It would be a tragedy if we replaced one hegemon with another, especially one with a poor record on tolerating dissent. By fostering multilateral coalitions that include but do not overly depend on China, the global community can harness its influence without compromising on principles of equity, sustainability, and justice.
2025 offers plenty of opportunities to test new approaches to multilateralism:
The EU’s Multiyear Financing Framework (MFF), which governs how the world’s most integrated regional block spends its vast multilateral budget over a 7-year period, will be negotiated next year, starting with an initial draft by the Commission in May. Not only is Europe’s regional funding greater than all other international funding put together, the EU is also one of the top 3 donors to global development priorities. This is Europe’s big chance to show a united front in combatting the risks and leveraging the opportunities of a multipolar world. Ensuring that it represents one of the critical poles, and does so guided by enlightened self-interest, not through the pursuit of grubby deals and quid pro quo. Without a strong and united Europe, it is hard to see how global challenges can be tackled, and multilateralism can thrive.
The FFD4 (Financing for Development) conference in Seville presents a moment to reshape global financial systems in the absence of U.S. dominance. Internationalists can use this platform to advocate for transformative mechanisms like debt restructuring frameworks and an effective global tax body under the UN to curb tax avoidance and illicit financial flows. By building South-South alliances and promoting alternative financing systems, countries in the Global South can reduce dependency on institutions like the IMF and World Bank. This is also an opportunity to demand greater accountability from OECD countries, pressuring them to fulfil their commitments on official development assistance (ODA) and financing for global public goods. A strong emphasis on South-led innovation and cooperation will showcase the strength of multilateralism without U.S. hegemony.
The World Summit on Social Development in Qatar offers a chance to push for bold solutions to inequality and social injustice on a global scale. Internationalists should champion universal social protection floors, funded through financing mechanisms developed at FFD4. This summit is also a space to address systemic inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic, focusing on policies that prioritize marginalized groups, including women and indigenous communities.
At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, internationalists must unite to push for transformational climate solutions in the face of U.S. obstructionism. Brazil’s leadership as host provides an opportunity to deepen alliances among Southern countries and subnational actors to advance a “Just Global Transition.” This can include promoting renewable energy projects and equitable climate finance mechanisms. With the U.S. sidelined, the EU, Canada, and other OECD nations should be held to their climate finance promises, ensuring funding flows to vulnerable nations. By fostering a “coalition of climate doers” that includes cities, states, and civil society, COP30 can set the stage for decisive action even in a fragmented global context.
The G20 summit in South Africa in 2025 will be a key moment to consolidate alternative leadership in anticipation of the 2026 G20 in Trump’s America, which is likely to undermine multilateral cooperation. Internationalists should use this gathering to showcase the potential of a multipolar world order where emerging economies, particularly from the Global South, take centre stage. South Africa, as host, can lead efforts to redefine the G20’s agenda, emphasizing debt justice, equitable trade systems, and sustainable development financing. It will also be critical to establish a unified front on climate action and poverty reduction that can challenge any regressive tendencies at the 2026 summit. By framing the South Africa meeting as a transition point, the G20 can become a space for diverse voices to influence global governance, setting a precedent for resilience and innovation even under challenging political conditions.
Together, these five processes provide a huge opportunity to seize the initiative and reshape multilateralism for a multipolar world. We should focus on delivering tangible outcomes that showcase the strength of regional and grassroots leadership, as well as the power of collective action.
If we get this right, 2025 could mark the beginning of a new era in international cooperation.